Readiness Forecasting
The decisive management question is not 'how far are we?' but 'with what probability will we be operationally ready at the target date?' Readiness forecasting answers it — transparently enough to act on.
Explainable by construction
An actionable forecast must show its inputs. The IORS forecast is deterministic: open criteria, observed verification velocity over a trailing window, planned validation deadlines and the remaining time to target. Every projection lists exactly these numbers — no black box.
Three scenarios frame the uncertainty: Base (observed velocity), Accelerated (×1.35) and Delay (×0.7). Before any history exists, the forecast anchors on planned validation deadlines and switches to observed velocity automatically as verifications happen.
What the forecast changes
A forecast that shows the Base scenario landing 90 days after target — while the Accelerated scenario still makes it — converts a vague worry into a concrete management choice: raise velocity on the critical path, move the date, or reduce launch scope. That is decision support, not reporting.